How much does work in AI safety help the world?

Owen Cotton-Barratt and Daniel Dewey There’s been some discussion lately about whether we can make estimates of how likely efforts to mitigate existential risk from AI are to succeed and about what reasonable estimates of that probability might be. In a recent conversation between the two of us, Daniel mentioned that he didn’t have a […]

"Lichtenberg figure in block of Plexiglas" by Bert Hickman - en:Image:Square1.jpg. Licensed under Attribution via Wikimedia Commons -

Cost-effectiveness and scale: cause area and intervention

Owen Cotton-Barratt When we choose between giving time or money to different interventions, we’re making a comparison. It’s nice to know what these comparisons come down to. There are a lot of sources of evidence, and different ones will be more appropriate in different contexts. Say we are comparing between intervention x in cause area […]